Renowned economist Christophe Barraud has forecasted a win for Donald Trump in the November 5 US presidential election. Barraud, recognized as one of the “world’s most accurate economists,” bases his prediction on metrics like financial market signals, which he says point to a “GOP clean sweep.”
On X, he wrote that betting markets, polls, and financial indicators currently favor a Trump victory with Republican control of Congress.
As the chief economist Christophe Barraud and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, has led Bloomberg’s economic forecast rankings 11 times in the past 12 years. At 38, his impressive track record gives weight to his current predictions. He suggests that the GOP is likely to control the Senate, while the House of Representatives may be a closer outcome but still leans Republican.
In an interview with Business Insider, Barraud suggested that a Trump presidency with a Republican Congress might temporarily boost the economy. He projects GDP growth between 2.1% and 2.3% for 2025. However, he warned that significant tax cuts, without offsetting revenue sources, could increase the federal deficit over time.
Barraud anticipates a possible jump in the 10-year Treasury bond yield, reaching up to 4.5% after a Trump victory and potentially 5% as policies develop. He also projects that a Trump administration could exceed GDP growth expectations, which currently forecast 2.6% for 2024 and 1.8% for 2025.
Regardless of the election outcome, Barraud believes the economy may perform well in the near term. However, he noted that a split Congress might limit Trump’s domestic policy efforts, likely pushing his focus toward tariffs, which Barraud suggests could slow long-term growth for the US and globally.
Separately, prominent statistician Nate Silver, known for accurately predicting five previous US presidential elections, recently suggested Trump might win against Kamala Harris. Silver’s intuition gives Trump a 53.1% chance, though he cautions against relying heavily on gut feeling.
Meanwhile, Allan Lichtman, dubbed the “Nostradamus” of US elections for his accurate predictions in nine of the past ten elections, foresees a Kamala Harris win. Using his “Keys to the White House” model, which assesses 13 factors, Lichtman concludes that Harris leads with eight keys, while Trump holds three.
(This story is published from a syndicated feed and has not been edited by ANN Media, except for the headline.)
for more updates follow ANN MEDIA on facebook , X , Instagram and Linkedin
