According to the latest Election Commission data at 1:30 p.m., the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) candidate Mehraj Malik has taken a commanding lead in the Doda constituency. He is ahead of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Gajay Singh Rana by 4,558 votes and leads the National Conference’s Khalid Najib Suharwardy by almost 10,000 votes, solidifying his position as the frontrunner.
Mehraj Malik, who previously delivered AAP’s first electoral success in Jammu and Kashmir during the local body polls in December 2020, is now set to secure a win in this Assembly election. With 12 out of 13 counting rounds completed, his lead remains strong.
Historically, Doda has been contested by the National Conference and Congress, with the BJP claiming the seat in 2014. AAP’s success in the region has taken many by surprise and marks a significant milestone for the party.
While AAP celebrates in Jammu and Kashmir, the party faces challenges in Haryana—Arvind Kejriwal’s home state. A loss here would be a major setback, especially with the Delhi elections only four months away.
The results in Haryana hold particular weight since AAP was unable to forge a seat-sharing deal with Congress, despite their national alliance under the INDIA bloc. Efforts from Rahul Gandhi to unite the opposition were reportedly blocked by state-level leaders from both sides.
In contrast, the situation in Jammu and Kashmir presents a far more complex picture. Doda has been marred by recent security concerns, including an August terror attack in which an Army Captain lost his life. The district has also seen significant anti-terror operations, with security forces recovering U.S.-made weapons from militants. A major crackdown on terror networks followed a deadly encounter in July, which left four Army personnel dead.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign visit to Doda last month, marking the first visit by a sitting Prime Minister in over four decades, further underscored the political and security stakes in the region. Security was ramped up across Doda and Kishtwar for the visit.
Despite these challenges, Malik’s performance stands out in an election where the National Conference-Congress alliance is leading in over 50 of Jammu and Kashmir’s 90 seats. The BJP, which has never governed the region on its own, trails with 27 leads. Exit polls had predicted a slight edge for the Congress-NC alliance, with projections showing the BJP securing between 26 and 43 seats and the PDP taking 4 to 12.
In conclusion, AAP’s unexpected success in Jammu and Kashmir, amid its struggles in Haryana, showcases the unpredictable and dynamic nature of Indian politics. Mehraj Malik’s rise in a politically and security-sensitive region adds a significant chapter to AAP’s national journey.
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